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Bills vs. Patriots Odds

Bills Odds-4
Patriots Odds+4
Over/Under43.5
DateThu, Dec. 1
Time8:15 p.m.
TVAmazon

Week 13 of the NFL season will begin with a pivotal AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. Entering play, Buffalo is tied with the Miami Dolphins for first place in the division, with New England sitting in 4th place, but only two games behind in the loss column. On Thursday, oddsmakers are expecting the Bills to come away with a victory, pricing Buffalo as 4-point road favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Buffalo Bills

Per CBS, the Bills are 21-9 and own the second-best road win percentage of any team in the NFL across the last four seasons. A big reason for their success is attributable to their ability to score points in any environment. Entering Week 13, the Bills rank 2nd in offensive EPA/play and 2nd in points per game. Buffalo remains one of only two teams in the league that is converting over 50.0% of their third-down opportunities – an aspect of the game that could be key against a strong New England defense.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins, one of the best pass-blockers in the entire NFL, has been ruled out for Thursday’s contest. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 12 against the Detroit Lions, and was replaced by David Quessenberry. On Thanksgiving, Quessenberry allowed only one pressure on 45 snaps, but graded extremely poorly in run-blocking, per Pro Football Focus. The return of center Mitch Morse will offset some of the blow for this offensive line, but this will be an area of the game to pay attention to against a high-performing Patriots’ pass-rush, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt in 2022.

Though the Buffalo offense has been nothing short of elite this fall, the defense has been stellar as well. Through 11 games, the Bills rank 10th in EPA/play. Across the last two weeks, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle Ed Oliver have both won an AFC Defensive Player of the Week award. Linebacker Von Miller has been ruled out for this matchup with a knee injury, but defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and defensive end Greg Rousseau have each graduated from the injury report and will return to the field for this intra-division affair. Edmunds last played a full game in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings. From Week 1 to Week 8, the Bills ranked 4th in defensive EPA/play, but only 24th in defensive EPA/play from Week 9 to Week 12. His return, alongside a few other notable names, should be a boon for this group.

New England Patriots

Following an impressive rookie campaign, has struggled mightily as a sophomore. New England is 4-4 in his eight starts this season, with the defense doing the majority of the heavy lifting in each of those victories. The young signal caller ranks 28th in QBR this year, and his 6-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is a significant regression from 2021, during which he threw 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Further inhibiting the offense in this spot is the injury report. While Buffalo’s defense will return a number of key contributors, New England will be without running back and offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn. Facing a capable Buffalo pass-rush, the offensive line will be tested.

A big challenge for Head Coach Bill Belichick’s defense on Thursday will be containing in the pocket. Last year, Allen had a combined 169 rushing yards in three games against New England. Since Week 13 of last season, this has been a weakness for the Patriots’ defense against other opponents as well – having surrendered 38 rushing yards to , 107 rushing yards to , 82 rushing yards to , and 39 rushing yards to in that span, per Sal Capaccio. As bettors saw last Thursday, New England’s secondary unit is vulnerable in difficult matchups as well – making this a high-variance unit for Week 13.

Bills vs. Patriots – Picks & Predictions

Though both the Bills and Patriots are playing on Thursday Night Football, neither team is on a short week after both played on Thanksgiving last Thursday. The return of defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and defensive end Greg Rousseau should help Buffalo’s defense immensely in this spot, after having struggled in recent weeks without some of their top-tier talent. Assuming that New England’s defense comes well-prepared, bettors could be in for a low-scoring affair to begin Week 13 – take the under.

PICK: Under 44 (-122, DraftKings)

Image Credit: Imagn

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